Thursday, 13 October 2011


Getting aired all over the media yesterday QBE/BIS Shrapnel's predictive report of house price's to the moon. Just pay-for-credibility crap commisioned by QBE, a mortgage insurer. This comes out as data this week reveals mortgage lending is at a 9 year low.

Surge in house prices tipped for Sydney

SYDNEY house prices are tipped to eclipse all other capitals except for Perth over the next three years.

Prices in the harbour city will rise 19 per cent - or 8 per cent in real terms - in that time and take Sydney's median house price from $644,000 now to $770,000 by June 2014, the QBE LMI Housing Outlook 2011-2014 report says.

This compares with 20 per cent in Perth, 16 per cent in Brisbane, 8 per cent in Canberra and only 6 per cent in Melbourne.

The report, prepared by BIS Shrapnel, says the underlying strength of the Australian economy, stable interest rates in the short term, high immigration and a dire shortage of houses in Sydney, will be the main drivers of this growth.

It also predicts that first home buyers will start to re-enter the market in greater numbers next year as the outlook for the economy improves. This will in turn encourage others to return, especially upgraders, as demand for their properties improves.

New home buyers? How? Do the maths... The Nurse and the Cop.

Hows their predictive history?

October 2009
Brisbane house prices are set to rise by 15 percent over the next three years but annual wage growth will fail to keep pace, new forecasts show.

The median house price in Queensland's capital is expected increase one per cent to $425,000 by June 2010, before jumping a further six per cent later in the year, according to mortgage insurer QBE's LMI Housing Outlook, released today.

By mid-2012, however, Brisbane residents can expect to pay 15 per cent more for a house than they do now. But with an average growth rate of 3.5 per cent a year, their annual earnings will only have risen 10 per cent in the same period, according to the Wage Price Index.

Hmmm, so from 2009, Brisbane up 1% to $425K then a "jump" by 6% makes it $450K, a total of +15% by June 2012 to make it $483K. Current Brisbane median price is reported at $420K down 6.1% over the year. It needs a boost of 15% in 9 months to catch that prediction. Dreaming.

House price growth in Brisbane, however, will lag behind four other capital cities, including Adelaide, where prices are expected to increase 23 per cent - twice the growth rate of Perth and Canberra.

Fail. Epic fail. Specific predicted rates from 2009: House prices to grow by around 20 percent over four years: QBE LMI.

President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry Queensland, Beatrice Booth, said the situation may trap many would-be homeowners in the rental market.Ms Booth said the next six months was a prime time for first home-buyers and those looking to trade up to larger homes to take advantage of the market.

"You would certainly be wanting to get yourself into the market as soon as possible," she said.

If you took her advice I dub thee financial road-kill (TIMBERRRRRRR!!, Acceleration refers). 

Do the historical predictions get better? Make up your own mind....

BIS Shrapnel (I like the 9.5% interest rate bit WITH home price growth decode: lock in a fixed rate and jump in NOW!)
First Home Buyers
House Price Growth

Why are we being bombarded with this shit, is it just misguided "churnalism" (reporters unquestioningly publish press releases from vested interests) or circumstantial evidence of a more nefarious intent? Watch the video in the following linked post and you be the judge... On the Internet, nobody knows you're a dog, or a paid property spruiker.
If that link dies, here is another couple... paid spruikers? and Power over populism

The Irish and American spruikers were frothing at the mouth in 2007, 2008 and 2009 as their market rolled over.... a prime example of where the leading spruikers end up  the lower echelons are probably too busy nowadays picking up dirty glasses down at the marina or flipping a burger at Macca's.

Mr. Lereah continued to make rosy statements amid growing signs of a housing downturn -- like this declaration in January 2007: "It appears we have established a bottom." A few months later, NAR announced that existing-home sales fell 2.6% in April from a month earlier and 10.7% from a year earlier.

Thats sales volume down 10.7% not prices per se back then US prices were quite flat. Our volumes are only down about 45% in two years, slightly boosted lately by some expiring stamp duty bribes....



  1. Jesse,

    ".... If you convert loanable funds of one duration into loanable funds of another duration, either by wholesome George Bailey banking or by synthesizing collateralized instruments (a category which logically includes nominally zero-term demand deposits), you are taking this elegant market signal, the yield curve, and raping it in the ass...."

    "... In other words, a healthy bank - virtual or marble-pillared - expects to meet all its obligations from cashflow, without new borrowing to pay off old loans. Well, knock me over with a feather. If that's not simplistic, I don't know what is. That's what accounting should be - simplistic...."


  2. Thanks for the linky. Interesting "twist" (cue pun alert) on the age old simple pyramid scheme.