Friday, 7 October 2011

Its Getting Silly

So Europe plays the shell game without fixing a thing for the upteenth time in the last 2 years and the market rallies. Yawn.

But this time the additional tralalalala news, to get you to part with your hard earned is, Bear Market Averted.

Bear Market Averted
The S&P 500 has rebounded 6 percent since Oct. 3, when it closed within 1 percent of a level that would have marked a bear-market plunge of 20 percent from its April peak. The S&P GSCI commodities gauge is up 5.3 percent in two days, its best back-to-back advance since May, and has trimmed its drop from this year’s high to 20 percent.

You see some knob has all of a sudden decided that a bear market is a 20% drop in one hit, 19% hits are OK. I like how they make this shit up as they go along.

its steepest advance since July 2009, to trim its year-to-date loss to 23 percent

A 23% loss over 9 months is not a bear market? Phew, what a relief.

Lets say a market falls 19% in a quarter then rises 20% in a quarter, then falls 19% in a quarter, then rises 20% etc etc and we do this over 5 years, what do we end up with?

$1000 over 5 years has fallen to $752, a loss of 24.7%. But its never cracked 20% down in one hit so its not a bear market in financial newspeak.

Jesse: Doctor I think I'm bleeding to death
Dr Komic O'Nomic (a serbo-irish product of the noo unified Europe): No, you are losing blood at a nett loss when compared to what we are putting in but you are not bleeding to death you just have accelerating anaemia.
Jesse: Thanks Doc, what a relief, I might have a lie down now I'm not feeling well.

I cast my mind back to June 2008, the last time this shit was trotted out, Bear Market averted. Over the following 9 months, the market only fell another 30%.

Its all good.


  1. Jesse,

    If you want to pick up on this I think it could merit your attention.

    This is the most delusional piece I have ever seen on MB bar none.

  2. Reminds me of the definition of a recession, you know, the one that Swanny so heroicly avoided for us :|