Sunday, 30 October 2011

Is Queensland Going Under?

The QLD government's June quarter Housing Market Report is not a pretty read. I suggest reading my earlier post, The Implant as a primer about the mentality north of the Tweed River.

The Rental Market

Rents falling in units? No growth in rents in houses (not even a rise with inflation)? Isn't there a shortage?

Vacancy rates rising?

Gladstone has become a major Coal mining centre. The rest?

Home Prices (read on an empty stomach)

$420,000 to $407,000 in 3 months?  A loss of $1000 per week per property (Queenslanders love property investment).

Detached Houses


That's carnage with Cairns leading the way (I presume Port Douglas being the major drag).

Referring back to "The Implant" hows Cairns Units? $1705 a week down the gurgler in the last 3 months and an average $1500 a week over the year to wipe $80,000 off or 28%.

The Economy

The housing market slide (equity falls take out discretionary spending) is starting to flow on.

Unemployment will continue to rise as house prices fall.

Want to bet the media ignore this report or bury it?

QLD Housing and Economy 2Q 2011

The mining industry underpinning Australia's economy is just media waffle. Australia's economy is underpinned by massive private debt fuelling a ponzi housing bubble.

Big banks to bring home $17.5bn bacon

AUSTRALIA'S big banks will announce nearly $17.5 billion in full-year profits over the next two weeks, rounding off a record reporting season for the sector.

But the results come against a backdrop of rising tension in Europe's financial markets, while in Australia the rate of annual lending growth has slowed to near three-decade lows.

The subdued lending environment - mostly as a result of consumers and businesses being more cautious towards debt - means revenue growth is the biggest challenge faced by the sector.

Bank profits 'underpin' economy: ABA

Indeed they do, built around a Ponzi bubble.

The Australian Bankers' Association has defended bank profits, saying the banking system "underpins" the Australian economy.

The ABA has released a fact sheet which it claims highlights the importance of bank profitability. ABA chief executive Steve Munchenberg said profitable banks provide a safety net to the economy in the midst of global economic uncertainty post the GFC.

A safety net built on overleverage, massive debt and a Ponzi bubble. I feel safe now.

"Unlike overseas, banks here did not fail, nor did they require government bailouts. Australia's healthy banks continue to keep our savings safe and to make loans which keep the Australian economy moving," he said.

That last line is worthy of the comedy channel. 

But, something is amiss.

Job losses loom as banks to wield axe 

PREDICTIONS of thousands of job losses in the banking sector were reinforced yesterday after former investor darling Macquarie Group revealed it had cut almost 500 jobs in the past six months.

Analysts from UBS are predicting more job losses in Australia's commercial banks as they face the reality of customers seeking to reduce their debt.

UBS banking analyst Jonathan Mott estimates Australia's big four banks and big regional banks employ 174,000 staff. But he warns that following the financial crisis, banks have lost a mainstay of their profitability - the ability to sell more and more loans.

Its unravelling. The viability of Ponzi schemes require new entrants to keep it going.

I'll finish with an interesting video from Ireland in 2003 when it it was boom, boom, boom and Celtic Tiger etc with no end in site....

1 comment:

  1. This is a great piece, thanks

    Really enjoyed the mcwilliams video too. I think ireland might be a portend of the future for australia. They're upset with their politicians too

    On another note, you might like this talk by michael pettis on china, its really good