Tuesday, 17 May 2011

The Nurse and the Cop

You know why the Ponzi is over (Australian Property)?

A Registered Nurse with a degree on $60,000 a year (or the local Constable) takes home approx $930 a week (say $48K a year).

To borrow $450,000 to buy a house (7.25% int) with a $50,000 deposit is going to cost her $750 a week.

[Where did the 50K come from? Mum and Dad's property? Lets roll the Domino Effect if so]

No one can live on $180 a week with fuel, food, power requirements.

Thats the problem. Its end game. You've reached the limit, no more Ponzi players. Like the fat kid when the music stops and all the chairs are gone.

Now Nurse Betty or Constable Stadanko can put $50K in Ubank earn $63 a week and rent the same $500K dump for $450 a week.

Total saving? $363 a week.

Now consider that properties prices are falling (QLD and WA at least) at lets say 5% pa (stifles laugh - lets double down!).

Thats a fall of $480 a week initially (gets smaller because decay is a shrinking effective derivative) on that $500K 'good value' dogbox sliding at a benign 5%pa (don't make me laugh FFS).

Total Saving Now? $363+$480 = $843 a week or $43,836 a year if she didn't play Ponzi (she only earns $48K after tax remember!)

Who is going to be the fat kid when the music stops?

Hint: in 4 years since the property bubble peaked Irish rents have gone down 27%. At its best the Irish had 3 people per dwelling as a ratio and Australia has 2.5. If they now have too many dwellings, we have way more than too many dwellings.

Buy the shortage myth and work until you are 70. DYOR on the myth.

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