Sunday 1 May 2011

What a crash [that brings down the banking sector and spikes unemployment from 4.5% to 13%] looks like.



Irish House Prices peaked in the period October 2006 to July 2007.

Changes in Irish House Prices QoQ.

Q4 2006 Flat (No Change)

Q1 2007 +0.7%
Q2 2007 +0.2%
Q3 2007 -1.0%
Q4 2007 Flat (No Change)

Q1 2008 -3.3% 
Q2 2008 -2.9%
Q3 2008 -3.2%
Q4 2008 -6.0% (The largest percentage drop)

Q1 2009 -5.4% 
Q2 2009 -4.9%
Q3 2009 -4.2%
Q4 2009 -5.0%

Q1 2010 -3.5% 
Q2 2010 -4.0%
Q3 2010 -2.8%
Q4 2010 -5.8%

Q1 2011 -2.9% 
----------------------

Changes in Irish House Prices YoY

Year 1 -1.5% 
Year 2 -11.5%
Year 3 -18.5%
Year 4 -14.5%
Last 6 Months -8.4% 

Total Losses -43.2% over 4 years and 5 months.

Quarter on Quarter and Month on Month those falls look insignificant with -6% being the biggest QoQ drop. But, string them together and you have a train wreck.

Has Australia seen any recent falls that compare?




How do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time.






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