Tuesday, 24 January 2012

Australia Now Driving On The Negative Equity Super Highway, Route 1 To Financial Perdition

Take the next right and let the journey begin...

Lots of articles appearing  in the media about negative equity and shattered housing dreams.

Local owners looking at negative equity 

The latest RP Data National Equity Report indicated that almost the entire area located to the east and south of Perth, effectively from Perth down to Albany and across to Esperance, was experiencing some of the nation’s highest levels of negative equity.

Report authors and RP Data researchers Tim Lawless and Cameron Kusher said that almost 5 per cent of homes nationwide were in negative equity.

“4.9 per cent of all Australian homes are currently valued at less than purchase price,” the report said.“The negative equity figure has risen from 3.7 per cent at the end of the last quarter.”

The report cited far north Queensland, the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast as having the highest instances of negative equity at 20.2 per cent, 14.0 per cent and 13.5 per cent respectively.
20.2% of Far North Queensland homes are in negative equity? 
14% on the Gold Coast?
13.5% of Sunshine Coast Properties? 
4.9% Nationally?

Thats a train wreck.

And, it will only get worse. Unemployment is still under 5.5%, wait until its over 10%. And, it will go there as the domestic purse strings tighten with falling home equity and the spiral begins. I wrote Smells Like? as the first evidence of retail contagion started to surface last year and it appears that indeed its not different here.

More Links: 

Jesse's Holiday Season Award For A Journalist Putting 24Karat Gold Coating On a Dog Turd:

1770 prices step back in time as beach towns await boom 
The reality is the banks are dumping their foreclosures.

According to Ms Skinner, the once $1.5m-$1.8m asking prices for beachfront penthouses at Loka Santi have slumped to a more realistic $350,000-$600,000. The average median house price in Agnes Water has slumped 20 per cent compared with the same time last year, according to RP Data.

Ms Skinner should know. Two years ago she paid $900,000 for a garden unit in the same block in which the penthouse was surrendered by the bank at a knock-down price. "It brought tears to my eyes," she said.

And, The Nice Try But Fail Award (One can still smell the odoriferous tang of dog faeces despite appearances):

Chinese lead increase in foreign investment in Queensland residential property in 2011

And buyers from China once again topped the list, according to new research by Colliers International.

The figures on buying patterns during the 2010-2011 financial year have shown 733 residential sales to foreign buyers.

In all, 506 of those sales were investments with 277 for owner-occupiers.
While overseas buyers eased back on spending, it was not at the same level of decline as local buyers.

Buyers from China actually stepped up their spending. They forked out $106.8 million on Queensland property - an increase of 50 per cent on last year.

733 sales to foreigners out of  over 100,000 sold across the state? Whats that under 0.7%? Not even 1% of QLD property goes into foreign hands and its a story? Of that 733 minutae, the Chinese bought 32% or 234 properties worth $106.8M or, $462K a property. Wow, we are saved.

Its worth following Michelle Hele at The Courier Mail, she is hilarious. Tasmania Real Estate Trouble first outed her in Yes, we are open!. This country badly needs an Australian Real Estate "Shill Tracker".

So where to from here?

Lets look to those silly Americans who nothing about exuberant bank lending and real estate crashes.

14.7 Million (19%) Of US Mortgages Have $770 Billion In Underwater Equity, $2.4 Trillion In Total Debt Impaired (This article is 18 months old but you'll get the picture)

I don't understand why Florida and California lead the pack, wasn't there a housing shortage there in 2006?
Southern California has been experiencing a massive population boom in recent years and it’s believed that 6 million new residents will be living in the region by 2020. The population increase, coupled with the housing shortage, has the CBIA worried that it will be increasingly difficult for first-time homebuyers to find a moderately priced unit

Hows it going 5 years on?
Case-Shiller Report… Housing Pain Remains

The Case-Shiller indices indicate a couple of things. First, the impact of foreclosed properties still weighs on home prices. And as more foreclosed properties hit the market now that lenders are ending their self-imposed moratorium on foreclosures, more pressure is expected on home prices.

As we take the exit, I check the NavMan to see exactly where we are...

Whats on the horizon to turn this baby around? Nothing.

If anything, external factors (China and Europe) will add a Nitrous Injection to the engine.

1 comment:

  1. Good post, I enjoyed it.

    Nice call of BS on the Chinese investments too.

    Xenophobia is really being pushed a lot lately isn't it. I guess it's convenient because the 'accused' can't fight back or argue.