1929 - 1932 Dow Jones
- September 1929 - November 1929, a 49% fall from 381 to 198.
- November 1929 - April 1930, a 49% rally from 198 to 294 (bear market rally)
- April 1930 - July 1932, an 86% fall from 294 to 41.
- September 1929 - July 1932, a total fall from peak of 89% fall from 381 to 41.
- The September 1929 peak was regained 25 years later in 1954.
2007 - 2011 Dow Jones
- October 2007 - March 2009, a 53% fall from 14066 to 6626.
- March 2009 - April 2011, a 93% rally from 6626 to 12810 (bear market rally based on US Fed 'printing' money)
- April 2011 - ?????, an ??% fall from 12810 to ???.
- The October 2007 peak regained ?? years later in ????.
2007 - 2011 Australian All Ordinaries Index
- October 2007 - March 2009, a 54% fall from 6716 to 3111.
- March 2009 - April 2011, a 62% rally from 3111 to 5036 (bear market rally, we didn't 'print' money)
- April 2011 - ?????, an ??% fall from 5036 to ??? (presently down 19% since April 2011
- The October 2007 peak regained ?? years later in ????.
Will the Fed print again when the shit hits the fan? Will it have any effect?
Headlines from the era
"We will not have any more crashes in our time." - John Maynard Keynes, 1927
"There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity." - Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928
"There is no cause to worry. The high tide of prosperity will continue." - Andrew W. Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury, September 1929
"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." - Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929
"Secretary Lamont and officials of the Commerce Department today denied rumors that a severe depression in business and industrial activity was impending, which had been based on a mistaken interpretation of a review of industrial and credit conditions issued earlier in the day by the Federal Reserve Board." - New York Times, October 14, 1929
"This crash is not going to have much effect on business." - Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929
"...despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression..." - Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 2, 1929
"The Government's business is in sound condition." - Andrew W. Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury, December 5, 1929
"President Hoover predicted today that the worst effect of the crash upon unemployment will have been passed during the next sixty days." - Washington Dispatch, March 8, 1930
"The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern... American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity." - Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930
"While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed the worst and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There is one certainty of the future of a people of the resources, intelligence and character of the people of the United States - that is, prosperity." - President Hoover, May 1, 1930
"The worst is over without a doubt." - James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor, June 29, 1930
Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over." - Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930
"We have hit bottom and are on the upswing." - James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor, September 12, 1930
"President Hoover has summoned Colonel Arthur Woods to help place 2,500,000 persons back to work this winter." - Washington dispatch, October 21, 1930
"I see no reason why 1931 should not be an extremely good year." - Alfred P. Sloan, Jr., General Motors Co, November 1930
"The depression has ended." - Dr. Julius Klein, Assistant Secretary of Commerce, June 9, 1931
"I believe July 8, 1932 was the end of the great bear market." - Dow Theorist, Robert Rhea, July 21, 1932
"All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S." - President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933
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