Wednesday, 10 August 2011

Running Up The Down Escalator

Bear Market Rallies

Between Sep 2008 and March 2009, the ASX had 5 x 400pt+ multiday rallies.

In fact 4 days after Lehmann Bros collapsed the market added 500pts in a couple of days.

Overall? The ASX dumped 2000 pts in 6 months around those rallies.

Best illustrated by the Nikkei which has dumped 75% over 22 years.





If the ASX followed the above pattern it will be 1700 in 2029 (cue shrieking and self harm).

Hows your High Growth Super looking? (I'm the guy in orange on the vid ;)



Its a high volatility bear market.

The algo trading platforms (75% of NYSE volume) and the swing and trend traders will make a killing.

The equity oriented superannuant IS the kill.

ASX since 2007:
  • down 53%,
  • then up 56% on "US Fed QE stimulus" (still down 27% overall from 2007),
  • then a current leg down of 16% (down 39% overall from 2007).
See the Big Picture Trend?

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