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Friday, 26 August 2011
Down, Down, Deeper and Down.
I want all the world to see To see you’re laughing And you’re laughing at me I can take it all from you Again again again again again again again Deeper and down Down down deeper and down Down down deeper and down Down down deeper and down Get down deeper and down
No, I'm not showing my age (well I am). Its about Real Estate.
I just flew in from Hobart after flying into Launy and driving around the state, and whilst its not in full crash mode yet, one can sense it. If you want to make a quid down there make Real Estate "for sale' signs, half the state is on the market it seems, but frozen, nothing moving.
In fact, I almost swerved into the D'Etrecasteaux Channel when cruising down Bruny Island, the radio station bimbo in a jubilant tone blurts out (as news) that in 'excellent' figures 'just out' - 45,000 of the states workers were employed in Real Estate and Construction and a third of the governments tax revenue comes from Real Estate transactions (ie Stamp Duty).
Is that a problem? Well, in census 2006 there were 216,000 Tasmanians in the labour force, its 5 year old census data but 45,000 in the RE industry is a number around 20% of the workforce. As for the govts gravy train via stamp duty slowing to a few brown spots on the table cloth, the govt of Tasmania is about to dump 1700 public servants and the shit hasn't really hit the fan...yet. With that level of the workforce in the Ponzi (Ireland and Spain like ratios) I see some dark times ahead not only for the apple isle but the whole nation...
I was having a Boags Wizard Ale with an old mate that I hadn't seen in 20 years. Told him I was contemplating moving to Hobart. "When?" He asks. "When I can buy a house for less than 50% of their current value, say 2014 or 2015" [cue choking and beer spraying].
I have to stop saying shit like that when folks are mid sip/gulp.