Friday, 26 August 2011

Down, Down, Deeper and Down.

I want all the world to see
To see you’re laughing
And you’re laughing at me
I can take it all from you
Again again again again again again again
Deeper and down
Down down deeper and down
Down down deeper and down
Down down deeper and down
Get down deeper and down

No, I'm not showing my age (well I am). Its about Real Estate.

I was spurred by the post on macrobusiness, Perth takes another hit.

Most of the far flung states are. I live in QLD and thats a basket case as described in the anecdotes in LVO's, Messages from the front-line  .

(pic sourced from macrobusiness link above)

I just flew in from Hobart after flying into Launy and driving around the state, and whilst its not in full crash mode yet, one can sense it. If you want to make a quid down there make Real Estate "for sale' signs, half the state is on the market it seems, but frozen, nothing moving.

In fact, I almost swerved into the D'Etrecasteaux Channel when cruising down Bruny Island, the radio station bimbo in a jubilant tone blurts out (as news) that in 'excellent' figures 'just out' - 45,000 of the states workers were employed in Real Estate and Construction and a third of the governments tax revenue comes from Real Estate transactions (ie Stamp Duty).

Is that a problem? Well, in census 2006 there were 216,000 Tasmanians in the labour force, its 5 year old census data but 45,000 in the RE industry is a number around 20% of the workforce. As for the govts gravy train via stamp duty slowing to a few brown spots on the table cloth, the govt of Tasmania is about to dump 1700 public servants and the shit hasn't really hit the fan...yet. With that level of the workforce in the Ponzi (Ireland and Spain like ratios) I see some dark times ahead not only for the apple isle but the whole nation...

I was having a Boags Wizard Ale with an old mate that I hadn't seen in 20 years. Told him I was contemplating moving to Hobart. "When?" He asks. "When I can buy a house for less than 50% of their current value, say 2014 or 2015" [cue choking and beer spraying].

I have to stop saying shit like that when folks are mid sip/gulp.

Australia: Red/Orange  USA: Blue

(graph from Who Crashed The Economy before I drew the lines )     

Notice on the graph that folks that bought in the big Australian house bubble of 1892 didn't get their money back until 1950 (their great great grandkids anyway)?

1 comment:

  1. Enjoyed that article. I'm in Perth and would say, despite the figures quoted, there are many that think this current situation is a mere roadbump on the way to future housing wealth...Also know of three families that moved to Tassie, tired of our long hot summers, two of which purchased fairly highly priced properties overlooking Bruny. Have lost touch now but do wonder what will come of them. Anyway Tassie certainly sounds as though it's going down - hey surely they have resources!

    Totally unrelated but I saw these Veloci-Chickens and was reminded of your name change!