Came across an excellent site: http://macrostory.com/
...with an interesting post, Ominous Similarities.
Read the post yourself with the writers reasoning and analysis (and a ref to Jesse Livermore!!), but here is the teaser chart, 2011 on the left, 2007 on the right (click to enlarge).
Read the post but may I add he is a trader (for the uninitiated: SPY is the Exchange Traded Fund that tracks the SP500 NYSE Index; Long Puts, Debit Put Spreads and Theta are explained below quote):
Long PutIn essence of full disclosure below is my current trading portfolio. Please note this is not investment advice.I am currently short SPX via long SPY puts for both August and September and long SPY August debit put spreads. I did sell some SPY August puts today to offset the September puts I bought earlier in the week. The result my position size is the same but I was able to manage risk by shifting to a future expiration for about the same price. In other words I have the same capital at risk but have an additional month of theta.
Bear Put Spreads
PS Theta is the enemy of naked option buyers (longs) as I am witnessing as Suncorp dawdles down to $7.50 from $8.50, where it was on 20th May when I bought my $7.70 strikes. $7.53 today almost there!!
PPS I suppose a 11.7% fall in 70 days to an bank/insurance company tied to the QLD property anvil is not totally dawdling. ;)