Tuesday, 1 May 2012

Gold Attacks And Manipulation


Last night I was looking at the Gold chart and SLAM! It recovered in the end but its getting silly.
Today's $1.24 Billion Targeted Gold Slam Down Makes The Mainstream Press

For the first time in what may be ages, a phenomenon that has become near and dear to anyone who trades gold, and which at best elicits a casual smirk from those who observe it several times daily, we find that the WSJ has finally picked up on the topic of the endless daily gold slam down, where the seller in complete disregard for market disruption (because in a normal world one wants to sell any given lot without notifying the market that one is selling so as to get a good price on the next lot... but not in the gold market where the seller slams the bid with reckless abandon) ignores market depth and in a demonstration of nothing but brute price manipulation force, slams every bid down just to demoralize further buying. Naturally, that this simply provides buyers with a more depressed price than is "fair" is lost on the seller, but not on the buyers who promptly bid up the metal as attempt to demoralize buying end in failure after failure. Yet it is peculiar that today, for the first time, the intraday gold slam down has finally made the MSM. To wit: "The CME Group Inc.’s Comex division recorded an unusually large transaction of 7,500 gold futures during one minute of trading at 8:31 a.m. EDT. The sale took out blocks of bids as large as 84 contracts in one fell swoop and cut prices down to $1,648.80 a troy ounce. The overall transaction was worth more than $1.24 billion... Gold traders buzzed with speculation that the transaction was an input error — a so-called “fat finger” trade. “Or a Gold Finger as it might be known in the bullion market,” traders at Citi joked in a note to clients." Well, no. It wasn't.

Because if it was, by that logic the gold market falls prey to a fat finger every single day, often times 2 or 3 times a day. But because gold market participants have learned that complaining to the CFTC about this kind of manipulation has no impact, and because at the end of the day it merely provides a cheap reentry price, most have grown to love and anticipate these kinds of moves. In fact, we can only hope that the CFTC and SEC ignores this WSJ update, and lets the market keep on keeping on without changing anything. Because otherwise who will provide the depressed price levels that permit conversion of worthless paper into Fed-detested, undilutable barbarous tradition?

Whistleblower Exposes JP Morgan's Silver Manipulation Scheme

On March 23, 2010, GATA Director Adrian Douglas was contacted by a
whistleblower by the name of Andrew Maguire. Maguire is a metals trader
in London. He has been told first-hand by traders working for
JPMorganChase that JPMorganChase manipulates the precious metals
markets, and they have bragged to how they making money doing so. 

CFTC Pulls Public Comments from JP Morgan Whistle-blower: “We Are Fearful of a Cascading Credit Event; Wide-Scale Market Collapse”

In the letter, the JP Morgan insider reveals that high level executives and traders at the bank are putting the investments and savings of thousands, if not millions, of hard working Americans at risk of complete wide-scale market collapse through their machinations and fraudulent practices. Moreover, he suggests that executives at his bank are fully aware of commodity manipulations in which the bank engages, as well as the risks posed by a European collapse, an event that, according to the whistle-blower, will lead to annihilation of investments within a matter of days. (letter in link above)

Metal$ are in the pits

There is no silver lining to the activities of JPMorgan Chase and HSBC in the precious-metals market here and in London, says a 40-year veteran of the metal pits.

The banks, which do the Federal Reserve's bidding in the metals markets, have long been the government's lead actors in keeping down the prices of gold and silver, according to a former Goldman Sachs trader working at the London Bullion Market Association.
Embry had this to say about the gold market:  “I would dare say that the manipulation (of gold) today is perhaps more blatant and there is more of it than I’ve ever seen.  They (the manipulators) don’t care anymore.  You see these 3 o’clock in the morning precipitous drops. 

You see drops when the COMEX opens and when the London PM fix is in.  There are always these times they attack, and no market that wasn’t being manipulated would trade with that regularity.

I am of the mind that the paper guys have overplayed their hand and they have pushed the price too low.  The people in the East, in particular, the Russians, the Chinese, etc., know perfectly well the situation.  They are using this as a wonderful opportunity to take on more and more physical at what I would consider to be bargain prices.

The RBA Have Hit The Button


Wow. Fear and Panic. Smell it.

RBA's 50-point rate cut shot in arm for non-mining economy

Non-mining economy? That other bit that measures 85% of Australia's GDP (the non-mining sector)?  The 98.2% of Australian workers not employed in mining? I thought it was a mining boom and Australian's benefited?

You have to laugh. No one saw this coming did they (Smells Like?)

David Collyer picked up on an interesting wee morsel last month that the media chose to ignore and bury (so they don't spook the herd), What a party; what a hangover!


The RBA said yesterday assets have fallen by $40,000 per household in the last year. 

What about the mining boom? The Ponzi scheme starts to unravel. $40K south in one year? Grab the popcorn.

No wonder everyone is now saving over ten percent of their incomes and slashing mortgage balances with grim determination.

The economy, which usually steers like an oil tanker, has turned on a dime.

We were spending about 103 per cent of incomes, pinching off some of the strong rises in home prices and balancing this with borrowings.

What happened? Falling land prices.

103% of incomes? What could possibly go wrong in an economy that relies on a property bubble and more debt for growth?

The ABS says house prices are down nationwide by a mere 4.8 per cent (ABS). This is the result.

ABS horseshit. The fact is you can drop your 2009 peak valuation by 15% and you won't get a buyer.

ABS stats from MacroBusiness


The magic number is 1.15% . Drop house prices by 1.15% per month and in 5 years they have halved in value, not allowing for inflation. The beauty of 1.15% is that the herd is by and large so stupid and sans a mathematical clue it appears to be an insignificant number to be ignored. That own goal is scored a lot sooner if we take the stagflation pill.

Now lets see what interest rate the banks pass on? My bet is very little as they need my deposit capital more than ever.

However, my bet shorting the AUD yesterday is off to the races. Fallen now 1.2% in 32 hours or 120% return on margin. Thanks Glenn.

RBA Links:
http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/fsr/index.html
http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2012/mar/3.html


Monday, 30 April 2012

Dilbert And The Deflating Property Bubble

Obviously Dilbert's colleague bought a home in the last few years, believing the vested interest spin [via the highly respected media] that 'property always goes up' because of the misguided wildebeeste's belief in a property 'shortage'*.












*(2006) Construction industry says housing crisis has hit California (I hear the same crap in SE Queensland)

Saturday, 28 April 2012

Gold Flags


I haven't blogged for a while as most of the stuff I've written is coming to fruition so its pointless writing "see, I told you".




  • US debt spiralling out of control and the debt fuelled recovery stalling as the election looms.
  • European debt is spiralling out of control and the Monetary Union is simply imploding and civil unrest spreading as austerity triggers a poverty and economic spiral. 
  • UK debt spiralling and this week, officially in recession.
  • Australian property continues its slide (1.15% fall a month for 5 years is 50% off!) as the mining myth remains a mirage for the simpletons in suburbia as Australian debt approaches 270% of GDP (Australian Debt).
  • The Chinese bubble deflating rapidly.
  • Japan is just a train wreck.


So what next? If you think that Europe or the USA are going to pay their debts, you are delusional. Next step is an attempt at hyperinflation. They'll just print money like confetti in an attempt to make that $15Trillion debt today look like a $15 fifty years ago. It will cause chaos and spiralling unemployment but f*ck the little people, as long as the banking kleptocracy stays high and dry.


The strategy involves central bank simply printing money and buying government securities...


...and the government then drops its new money on the financial sector (M1, broad money supply) like confetti...


In 1980 the Zimbabwean dollar was worth more than the U.S. dollar, with ZWD 1 = USD 1.47. Throw in some money printing and on 18 July 2008, a report on Zimbabwe's inflation, said that an egg costs ZW$50 billion (GBP 0.17, USD 0.32), and it showed adverts for prizes of Z$100 trillion in a Zimbabwean derby and ZW$1.2 Quadrillion ($1,200,000,000,000,000.00: approx. GBP 2,100; USD 4,200) in a lottery. It also showed a monthly war pension currently is ZW$109 billion (GBP 0.37, USD 0.74), shops can only cash cheques if the customer writes double the amount, because the cost will go up by the time the cheque has cleared, and people can only withdraw a maximum of ZW$100 billion froman ATM.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zimbabwean_dollar#Exchange_rate_history

In 2008,  thirteen US cents (yes 0.13c) got you...


Has the USA had hyperinflation before? It certainly has, Hyperiflation in History (with 32 cases).

If the USA tries to hyper-inflate, gold is going polaric. Even this week the  Bank of Japan announces fresh stimulus to boost growth.

Some signals.
  1. Fed Signals No Need for More Easing Unless Growth Falters (and growth WILL falter eg The Second Foreclosure Tsunami Is Coming, And Is About To Kill Any Hopes Of A "Housing Bottom")
  2. Risk off? Having Sold Most of its Own, IMF Now Lauds Gold as 'Safe Asset'
  3. Peter Schiff - QE3 is coming

Gold in a Bull Flag?

Firstly, some Technical Analysis 101. What is a Bull Flag?
Bull Flag Pattern 1
Bull Flag Pattern 2

Is Gold in a bull flag like in the links above? I think so.



How high could gold go? I came across this interesting piece of analysis. Ambitious? Maybe (or maybe not).









Wednesday, 4 April 2012

Aiutami Mummia


You can't beat austerity. Such a wonderful tool to spur economic growth and prosperity.

Markit/ADACI Italy Services PMI

Key points:
  • Output and new business both decrease rapidly
    over the month
  • Employment levels fall solidly
  • Petrol price increases maintain high cost
    pressures
Italy is going to enter a depression, the likes of which even nonna never saw.

Read the rest in the link.

Remember Italy, like Spain, is too big to fail.

Please Explain? An Inconvenient Truth?



Something is giving off some aroma looking at the latest house prices in Sydney (Hobart is just bizarre).

Macrobusiness relays RP Data's latest bollocks index (no offence meant Leith):
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2012/04/march-house-prices-leith-van-onselen/

Sydney house prices at a median of $525,000.

Lovely.

30 months ago they were $600,000 (October 2009).

Median cost of a Sydney house tops $600,000
A TYPICAL Sydney house now costs well in excess of $600,000 after surging at the rate of $5000 to $6000 a month all year.

The latest RP Data-Rismark property index shows prices in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra continuing to climb apparently unaffected by a slowdown hitting other state capitals.

What am I missing?

RP Data November 2009 release:
Capital city dwelling values – first ten months of 2009
•Sydney values (up) 9.9% to $553,583

RP Data November 2010 release:
Change in city dwelling values: 3 months to October
•Sydney values (up) 0.8% (s.a.) / (up)1.4% (raw); median price: $512,500
Later in the tables: (Sydney growth) Year to date 6.1%

How can house prices drop from $553K to $512K in 12 months to November 2010 and one claim 6.1% growth?

Thats a 7.4% fall.

And $600K to $525K in 31 months? Thats a 5% drop year-on-year and a total of 12.5% off from peak not allowing for inflation and then its ugly.

Outlook? Well, if history is anything to go by...



Hmmmm, look, there is a light at the end of the tunnel for property investors...



Shillwatch (or Identifying Bullshit Artists)


Two of my favourite sites exposing the bullshit Ponzi scheme that is the Australian economy (aka The World's Biggest Real Estate Bubble) are The Depression and Prosper Australia.  Both sites in my useful links and well worth a perusal (unless you are a real estate investor and live near that North African river: Denial).

A recent gem from Prosper:
Don’t Buy Now! campaign saves buyers $58,000 in one year 
Consider a typical Melbourne first home buyer couple with a 20% deposit ($120,000) ready to buy a home at the median $585,000 a year ago. Instead, they waited.

Their savings:
Melbourne median house prices have fallen 6.1% (ABS) – $35,000
The difference between Melbourne median rents $17,680 (TUV) and interest at 7.46% (WBC) on a $465,000 mortgage (ignoring stamp duty, principal repayments, rates, insurance, depreciation and repairs) – $17,009
Interest earned on $120,000 savings at 5.5% (ignoring tax) – $6,600
TOTAL: $58,609

“There is a further long-term benefit not included above: the smaller required mortgage would leave an extra $250 per month interest in a buyer’s pocket, or $41,000 over a 25 year loan. This money would be available at the buyers’ discretion for living expenses or to accelerate principal repayments.

“This is not a cue to immediately buy a house,” Collyer warned.

“Prosper expects house prices to fall much further. We repeat our forecast made February 23 of house price falls of at least 15 per cent and possibly 20 per cent this calendar year.

And, the subject of this post, shills, are exposed beautifully in the links from The Depression appropriately titled Vested Interests

These two articles are a must read:
A toxic mess: vested interests and the real estate industry, and
Urban myths of real estate

North Queensland

I occasionally visit North Queensland and The Cairns Post is an icon of piss poor journalism regarding Real Estate and is a hive of shills pandering to vested interests. One of the last times I was up there in October, I posted The Implant .

The reason is the market is in freefall and you can smell the desperation on the sea breeze. With 22% of the region's mortgages now in negative equity.

RP Data says 6.4% of homes were valued at less than their purchase price in the December 2011 quarter, rising from 4.9% in the September quarter.
Far north Queensland had the highest proportion of mortgages in negative equity, at 22%, followed by the Gold Coast, with 19%.

The Sunshine Coast was in the third spot at 15%.

The area with the lowest amount of negative equity was Loddon, Victoria, with 1.9%, followed by Canberra with 2%.

Brisbane fared the worst among capital cities, with 9.2% of property deemed to be "underwater" in financial terms, followed by Perth at 7.4%

Sydney had 3.6% of properties in negative equity, pipping Melbourne with a 3.5% rate. In Hobart, 6.2% of properties were in negative equity, compared with 5.5% for Adelaide.

I posted this graph not long ago on where Australia sits as we follow the USA (4 years behind, typical!). The post was Australia Now Driving On The Negative Equity Super Highway, Route 1 To Financial Perdition
if you review that post we are now climbing the staircase.

I've updated the graph, big change for just 40 days...



So how are the Vested Interests trying to get more victims via the media shills? Take this article...


Have a closer look at the graph. The horizontal scale (x axis) is skewed, its doesn't reflect reality. It appears that its had a shallow run up, a small dip and is now flat lining.



I've put the data into XL and regraphed into a more appropriate perspective (WTF is an average median anyway? Anyone that wasn't asleep in senior Stats knows that data is represented either as mean (average) or a median (middle value of range))

Now for the truly ridiculous. Tasmanian Real Estate Trouble outed an agent once in a post a year ago, in an oxy moronic title of Good Value . Its well worth a review (if you are exposed to this train wreck - review on an empty stomach).

Cairns is like most regional cities, but I can't quite confirm that because I've never been. My brother lived there for a while and invited me to visit at least seven times, but it seemed a long way to travel to sweat, not everyone thinks the same apparently because Cait Bester, of the Cairns Post, reliably informs us that investors will flock to the city and grind up against as much house as they can in the coming months.

Again, a real estate agent has their finely tuned antennae picking up all the right signals and those signals say it's money making time. Why? Because Benny August is fanning some cash - six fifties to be exact...


In Benny's world, commanding legitimacy appears to be yanking out $300 large from the nearest ATM and fanning it for the camera. Now ponder some of the highly respected people who would fan cash for a photo - gangsta rappers, Jersey Shore cast members and yeah, real estate agents. That irritating metallic noise you can hear, that's the bottom of the desperation barrel scraping. As I showed above, real estate agents tend to pull the investor card when attempting to scare up a bit of business. The implication - if you locals don't get in now, all those investors will push up the prices and rent these houses back to you at inflated levels. An even more cynical interpretation - if someone doesn't buy a house now, I'm not gonna make the lease on this X3 next month.

Benny's reasoning for a coming investor plague was quite simple...

"With the share market the way it has been over the last few years, we are now seeing the older and younger generation start accessing their super or taking control of it. They are opting to put their hard-earned funds into something more solid – the good old bricks and mortar."
An Investor plague? Well obviously a few cognitively challenged souls believed this horse dung and have piled in because in the last 12 months following this sage advice, FNQs negative equity stats have climbed (Cait gets a mention in my October post The Implant ).

Not to be beaten, as the aromatic tang of the FNQ RE industry shitting itself permeates the trade winds, there is a most bizarre new direction in the northern rag as The Post (Cait again) and Benny team up again.




























Lucky? Lucky you Ben. Lucky you Cait.

2010 'lucky' winners

Now what about those people who borrowed 95% of a Trinity beach property a year ago?

The ones that forked out $10,500 in Mortgage Insurance; $20,000 in Stamp Duty; $13,000 in Deposit (accounting for the $7,000 FHOG or oz-sub-prime grant). That $50,500 is GONE! And as an added bonus, after 1 year you owe $372,500 on a house worth $365,500.

You win. If you followed the 'advice' in the Post and your $43,500 is gone and you owe $5500 more than your house is worth and you pay $12,000 more per year than if you rented. But its just a bronze folks.

2008 'lucky' winners

If you bought in 2008 you get the gold medal. $11,000 in Mortgage Insurance; $21,000 in Stamp Duty; $7,000 in Deposit (accounting for the $14,000 FHOG boost or super oz-sub-prime grant). That $39,000 is GONE! And as an added bonus, after 41 months you owe $375,500 on a house worth $365,500.

You really win. If you have faithfully followed the 'advice' in the Post and your $39,000 is gone; you owe $10,500 more than your house is worth and you pay $15,500 more per year than if you rented. Now THAT is lucky!

The difference between your negative equity mortgage payments and rent is just $576 a fortnight. Imagine having the 'luck' to shred $576 a fortnight AFTER burning $39,000 and if you sold your house right now you'll have to find $10,500 to avoid bankruptcy.

Once the car is sold (and the furniture) do you have $10,500? On the upside, you can buy a bicycle and tent at Big W and get change for $400. No sub-prime in Australia, no sireeee.

Ben, you indeed are...

...having the shills at The Post willingly lure more victims into the trap. More victims of the bullshit artistry.

Investor plague? Give us a fucking break.