Friday, 23 March 2012

An Epic Australian Bust

A link well worth a read from Seeking Alpha. Some superlative graphs and analysis.

An Epic Australian Bust

The reality is starkly different: Australia has a very vulnerable economy where upcoming bad news has not been "priced in" at all. The country suffers from an epic real estate bubble that greatly exceeds those of US, Ireland, and Spain. The average Australian consumer is completely tapped out. Take out a "consumer credit" punchbowl and reduce the Chinese voracious appetite for iron ore and coal, and the Australian economy will collapse like a house of cards.
Australian manufacturing has been declining in relative and absolute terms at a faster rate than it is in the USA and Europe. Today, it imports most of its manufactured goods.At first glance, exports are only a modest 21% of GDP compared to over 30% for other G20 countries such as Germany, China, and Canada. About 57% of all exports are minerals and agriculture, a highly sensitive sector prone to wild supply/demand and price fluctuations

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