Monday, 5 March 2012

Checking On the Sick Tiger

I love drawing parallels with the Celtic Tiger and Australia ( eg  To be sure, to be sure Acceleration, Irish Property - DAFT Report Q2 2011)

Finally The Kerryman catches on (h/t Max Carnage)...

House prices down 17.4% over year

House prices are continuing to freefall with average homes now up to 59% cheaper than during the height of the boom, latest figures show.

In January alone, average prices dipped 1.9% around the country, bringing the overall drop in house values down nearly a fifth (17.4%) since the start of last year.

In Dublin, where the plunge has been even sharper, prices came down another 4% during last month.
Prices of both houses and apartments in the capital have now plummeted more than 21% over the past year, and are down 57% since the peak of the property boom. Apartments alone have fallen by 59%.

With average prices in Dublin around 431,000 euro in February 2007, widely held to be the height of the bubble, which translates to around 246,000 euro wiped off house values.

From €431k (~$700k AUD) to €185k (~$230k AUD) in five years. I think we can declare the Tiger dead. Nothing like having a credit fuelled property bubble as the cornerstone of the economy. Before some git emails me with 'we are a resource economy', stop. Australia's total exports (Coal, Wine, Iron Ore, Ear Implants etc etc) are $216B or roughly 16% of GDP, the Commonwealth Bank's mortgage book alone (excluding Westpac, NAB and ANZ) is $340B. 70% of Australia's economy is 'services'. Don't be fooled, the train is coming.

$799,000 buys a dog box in Sydney, what can it get you in Ireland? What about a 55 room hotel?

Donegal hotel goes for a €650,000 song

A 55-bedroom hotel overlooking Donegal Bay, which was once on the market for €4.5 million, has sold at an auction of distressed property for €650,000.

The Sandhouse Hotel in the popular seaside resort of Rossnowlagh had been billed as the star lot in today’s Allsop/Space auction in Dublin’s Shelbourne Hotel.

However, the hotel, which was put on the market by direction of its liquidator KPMG, attracted considerably less interest than expected.

After a short bidding race, the property sold for its reserve price of €650,000, a fraction of what its former owners thought it was worth at the height of the boom.

The picturesque property was bought by the hotel’s current manager Paul Diver, who has managed the hotel for the last 20 years. “I just can’t believe it. It’s a total adrenaline rush. It’s been a long, long road but we’ve made it.”

When asked if he was surprised by the lack of interest, Mr Diver quipped: “No, I was delighted”
Delighted. A €3.85m loss or 85.6% 'haircut' after the bubble burst and he is delighted. Where will we see 85% haircuts in in Oz in 2016? Who in Australia will we be delighted?


  1. Think we here are Ireland with a longer wick and not as much powder?

  2. I think we are even looking at Australia's National debt and time from housing highs in 2010.