Wednesday, 26 October 2011

Nearing The 14th Summit

Its Summit night in Europe and the news is getting dumped onto the world thick and fast. So close and yet so far...

Euro Summit.

Europe Struggles for Crisis Remedy
European leaders “have risen to the challenge,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel said. French President Nicolas Sarkozy proclaimed their July 21 summit a “historic turning point” and Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean- Claude Juncker called it the “final package, of course,” to put out the debt inferno.

Then they went on vacation. Before they returned to work, the deal fizzled. 

You have to take your holidays when they come due bugger any crisis that can lead to wars, global financial meltdown etc.

The euro’s stewards are back in Brussels today for an emergency summit struggling to heed the world’s calls to once and for all extinguish what U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner called the “catastrophic risk” of the debt crisis. A potential Greek default threatens shockwaves that could engulf Italy and France, jolt the banking system and spell havoc for the global economy.

The 14th crisis summit in 21 months starts with a meeting of all 27 European Union leaders at 6 p.m. The real business gets under way at 7:15 p.m. when chiefs of the 10 non-euro nations depart, leaving the rest to hash out a strategy that they already say requires more work. 

14 summits in 21 months? This time will be different, errr maybe....

The cancellation of a finance ministers’ meeting to precede the summit underscored the holes in the plan. The finance chiefs will now meet at an as-yet undetermined time after the summit to complete its main elements, including safeguarding banks and writing down Greek debt, according to an EU official. 

The finance ministers can't arrange a meeting on a finance crisis?

Global exasperation with Europe’s response is deepening, with politicians from Australia to North America prodding the euro area to get ahead of the crisis before it infects the world economy. A Group of 20 meeting in Cannes, France, on Nov. 3-4 is Europe’s self-imposed deadline. 

The weather is nice in Cannes late Autumn and the food and wine terrific.

“We’re currently debating 50 percent to 60 percent in Europe,” Luxembourg’s Juncker said in an interview in Zurich yesterday. “We’ll have parallel talks in Brussels with banks and we’ll need to see what’s the result of a voluntary participation.”

Strikes, tear gas and 120,000 tons of uncollected garbage on the streets of Athens accompanied the Greek parliament’s approval of more austerity measures, as Greek citizens’ tolerance of EU-mandated budget cuts was stretched to the breaking point.


Greece’s bond writedowns will determine the amount of damage to European banks, which need around 100 billion euros of extra capital, the EU estimated last week.


What started in Greece and spread to Ireland and Portugal now stalks Italy, the third-biggest euro economy. European officials expect Berlusconi to show up in Brussels with specifics on containing pension spending and a timeline for meeting deficit-reduction targets.

If the banks take a 50-60% haircut credit will freeze and the remaining PIIGS will want haircuts; If they don't Greece will default and there will be global contagion and credit will freeze; Austerity is bring economic contraction, social breakdown and unrest and you need austerity AND economic growth (like trying to mate a cat with a dog expecting offspring) to Not default.

Mr Bond you have three choices of firing squad, death by hanging or lethal injection.

Berlusconi has yet to complete an austerity package whipped together on an August weekend that led the European Central Bank to start buying Italian bonds. The gains from that support have evaporated. Ten-year Italian notes yield 389 basis points more than benchmark German bunds, the same as on Aug. 4. 

Italian Government Collapse Imminent?

And, in Italy last night...

Italian government on brink as debt problems take toll
The Italian government is on the brink of collapse, according to reports, as prime minister Silvio Berlusconi struggles to unite his political coalition into action.

Berlusconi, who leads the Popolo della Libertà party, has been forced by European peers to take action over the country’s burgeoning debt problems.

However, coalition members are at odds over how to cut debts and which austerity measures to pursue.

Umberto Bossi, leader of the Lega Nord and part of Berlusconi’s coalition, states he would not raise the state pension age, saying “people would kill us”.

He explains he would not raise the state pension age to appease the Germans.

At a press conference earlier this week, German chancellor Angela Merkel and French leader Nicolas Sarkozy shared smiles when asked if the Italian prime minister would be able to implement reforms.

Greek Bank Run

Over to Greece, a bank run!

Greek Bank Run Getting Serious – Citizens Queue Up in Greek Banks 
On the eve of the second European Summit that will discuss significant haircuts on Greek debt, the citizens of the debt later country are lining up to grab their money.

Greek banks hold a significant amount of Greek debt and they have already experienced a slow bank run. The evidence seen now is not only in the numbers, but also in queues.
“I come here to immediately pick up my pension € 300. Who knows what else happened today. My money is safe only when it is at home” said Pensioners Evagelos Dimitros age 73.
The head of an Athens bank branch told BILD: “More and more Greeks who still have some money come to get it from the bank. In my office there are a total of 5,000 customers, 2,500 of which either have their money transferred abroad or hoard it at home. If this continues, there will soon be no more money.”
This joins a previous report from Bild, a German newspaper, about Greece’s rich moving around 200 billion euros from their accounts in Greece to Swiss banks.


England and France

Add a little AngloFrench historical love for one and other.
Sarkozy 'sick' of Cameron interference in euro crisis

French President Nicolas Sarkozy launched a scathing attack on British Prime Minister David Cameron at Sunday's EU summit, saying he was "sick of him telling us what to do," Britain's press reported.


During talks in Brussels to resolve the eurozone debt crisis, the French leader accused Cameron of "interfering in our meetings", British newspapers The Guardian and The Daily Telegraph reported, citing diplomatic sources.

"We're sick of you criticising us and telling us what to do," Sarkozy reportedly told Cameron.

"You say you hate the euro, you didn't want to join and now you want to interfere in our meetings," he added.
Another newspaper, The Times, also reported that a row had erupted, but did not give exact details.

Tempers frayed over Sarkozy's insistence that only the 17 members of the eurozone attend a bank rescue summit meeting hastily arranged for Wednesday, according to the Telegraph.

Cameron convinced those at the meeting that all 27 EU members should be invited, and British newspapers reported on Monday that Cameron had cancelled his planned trips to New Zealand and Japan in order to attend.


US Woes

And the Americans?
US States Are Facing Total Debt of Over $4 Trillion 

Monster Prediction From BofA: Another US Debt Downgrade Is Coming In Just A Few Weeks

Is Bank of America preparing for a Chapter 11?

Its all going rather smoothly over there as well. Are the printer's on standby?
Fed’s Yellen: QE3 May Be Warranted

IF (big IF) The Fed starts QE3, the US dollar will resume its journey to the basement and Gold to the moon.


US and China in a trade war?

Lawmakers Seek Tougher Stance on China Trade

To summarise it all, Tick-Tock Goes the Developed World's Debt and Derivatives Clock: U.S. National Debt Fast Approaches 15 Trillion!


 

Tuesday, 25 October 2011

Buy A House For $100 With No Obligations




Without learning anything from sub-prime the Americans (read: Govt) are putting folks in homes for $100 to try and save its housing market that still appears to be plunging in some areas with no end in sight.

Its simple, you borrow from Uncle Sam and you can also borrow for *ahem* improvements to make it habitable. And, its non recourse so you can walk away from it when you feel inclined.

You can't make this shit up. HUD Offers REO Homes for $100 Down in Select State.

HUD has approved a program aimed at putting foreclosed homes back into the hands of owner-occupant buyers.

In select states, from now into October of next year, buyers need a down payment of only $100 to purchase a HUD-owned REO home.

The buyer must be an owner-occupant, utilizing financing insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA). Standard FHA underwriting guidelines apply, and the sale must be for the full amount of the current list price.

The $100 down payment incentive program has been approved for two of HUD’s four national regions – the regions managed by the Denver Homeownership Center and the Atlanta Homeownership Center. HUD homes in the states listed, as well as the Caribbean are currently eligible for the program.

See link above for the list of eligible states.

With an FHA 203k loan, “buyers can find a property that needs some TLC, fix it up however they want to, and finance the whole thing for $100,” Martin explained.

MMREM is excited to work with this recent initiative, in a way that it supports putting HUD homes back into the hands of homeowners,” Martin said.

In addition to $100 down instead of FHA’s typical 3.5 percent down payment, HUD says it will also cover up to 3 percent of the closing costs in most cases.

HUD provides any American with $100 in their wallet, the ability to lever up by a factor of  >2000x and use the proceeds for pretty much anything (but make sure to call it "home repairs"). And when the scheme is stuck with hundreds of billions of non-performing, delinquent loans, what then?

This from a nation with over $15Trillion in debt, over $100Trillion in unfunded liabilities and bankrupt states and banks across the land. You can't make this shit up normally, but you can when the President is as popular as a bacon sandwich at a bar mitzvah and its election time.




Monday, 24 October 2011

Mining The Truth - Absolute Power Absolutely or 730,000% ROI over 10yrs.

I've had enough. I've spat the soother across the room. I was reading a blog today and it was rich with more mining-is-the-backbone of Australia's economy waffle.

Just waffle. Its an important part of the economy, sure, but its far from its backbone.

Then recently I read this, its a piece from a Law graduate from a leading Law School (assumption of high intellect and also the son of Australia's bizarro* carbon tax crusader) Chinese see softening in iron ore, steel prices.
THE Chinese steel mills that have been holding up the Australian economy are under pressure, with steel prices falling and iron ore prices expected to follow.
Holding up Australia's economy? I'm thinking 'get a grip'. I then find his raison d'être is talking up China's relationship with Australia, (Business Day-John Garnaut) on that note I suppose he is just doing his job. However myopic I feel that view is.

It then dawns on me, the absolute power this industry holds in this country and how the bombardment of propaganda sways public opinion and can even bring down a Prime Minister. That's absolute power.

Its easier explained via video. This little gem was on Lateline Business almost two months ago and got zero airtime over the mainstream media. Think tank questions value of resources sector.






Key General Facts

  • Mining exports in the year to March 2011 were worth $155 billion, or 11.4 per cent
    of GDP (this is all resources including our Liquid Natural Gas, Copper and Gold sectors etc);
  • It employs less than 2 per cent of the workforce; 
  • Mining is, in fact, one of the smallest sectoral employers in Australia, offering work to fewer people than that employed in the arts and recreation services sector; 
  • The average tax rate paid in 2009 was just 14 per cent; 
  • 83 per cent of profits are sent offshore to the foreign owners of mining companies - the total pre-tax profits earned by mining firms operating in Australia was more than $51 billion in 2009-10;
  • The average superannuation fund has only 4 per cent of its funds invested in Australian mining.


The RSPT vs the MRRT

The original version of the mining tax, the Resource Super Profits Tax (RSPT), would, at current commodity prices, have collected more than $200 billion in additional mining taxes over the coming decade. Unfortunately, the $22 million advertising campaign run by the mining companies against the RSPT resulted in a much less effective, and much less equitable, mining tax being negotiated. According to Treasury, the new Mineral Resource Rent Tax (MRRT) will raise an extra $38.5 billion in taxes from miners over the coming decade. The dividend of the $22 million advertising campaign for the mining industry was, therefore, more than $160 billion—equivalent to a 730,000 per cent return on investment. And, the effective removal of one democratically elected prime minister.

The move from Plan A, the RSPT, to Plan B, the MRRT, will cost, over the next 10 years, $16 billion a year less for us to spend on health, education or to lower other taxes. Remember, over 80% of mining profits leave the country.

For additional data about the effect the industry has on other economic sectors (eg the high AUD on manufacturing, tourism and increased cost of raw materials etc) read the embedded report below.


China, Iron Ore and Coal vis-a-vis The Australian Economy

  • Total Australian GDP approx $1,400B AUD (July 2011 and July exchange rate of $1.076AUDUSD)
  • Iron Ore Exports to China 2.86% of GDP (remember Garnaut's "Chinese steel mills that have been holding up the Australian economy" - the other 97.14% of the economy must be Scotch mist);
  • Coal Exports to China 0.31% (yep, not even 1% of our GDP).
  • Iron Exports to others (not China) 1.32%
  • Coal Exports to others (not China) 3.11%


Mining the Truth IP7



Other Referances.
DFAT Australia Fact Sheet
DFAT China Fact Sheet


This not an ant-mining rant its just about perspective; propaganda; abuse of power; the gullibility and stupidity of the population to respond to such propaganda; and the total failure of the media and bloggersphere to see the manipulation. I wish those individually employed in the sector the very best.


In the link, Australian's should be willingly comparing the acceptance a Carbon Tax versus volunteering to fight (and die) in Korea.
Bizarre Analogy Score: 100/100; Credibility score -50 and falling.

Its All Connected


From the New York Times:
It’s All Connected: An Overview of the Euro Crisis


European leaders are meeting this week to deal with growing debt problems rattling investors worldwide. Here is a visual guide to the crisis

(right click on pic to open in new tab or window and then click on new image to zoom)





European Vacation



Lots of great stuff from Zerohedge and Mike Shedlock on the weekend's European Comedy Capers...

Zerohedge:

European Finance Ministers Driven To Despair As Reality Returns (grim)

Greek Writedowns - Let's Do ONE Thing Correctly (defining default?)

They Can't Even Coordinate Press Conferences (more comedy)

Guest Post: The European Financial Crisis In One Graphic: The Dominoes Of Debt (more serious)

Summarizing The Sheer Chaos In Europe: 9 Meetings In 5 Days

Europe Goes Full Bailout Retard: EFSF Rescue Capital To Be Officially Double-Counted (back to comedy)

Watch Merkozy Cracking Up Following Question If Italy Can Implement Reforms (now even they are laughing)



Mike Shedlock (about 4 days of amazing Keystone Kops style silly stuff in chronological order):


Leveraged EFSF Violates Maastricht Treaty; "Merkozy" Master Plan Comes Unglued

EU Commissioner Seeks to Prohibit Rating Agencies from Rating Stressed Debt; IMF Report on Greece Held Up in Dispute with EU

Merkel Cancels Speech to Parliament; "Merkozy Marbles"

Euro Summit Statement "Leaked" Draft Looks Like Swiss Cheese; 10-Point Proposal for More Meetings

EU Given Rope, Hangs Itself

Magic Turns 340 Billion Euros Into 940 Billion Euros; Six-Day Marathon of Lies, Deceit Underway

Late Payments in Spain Soar to 7.14%, Highest Since 1994; Portugal Economy Expected to Contract More than Forecast in 2012

EU Diplomatic Source Says Worst Case Scenario Would Consume Entire EFSF, Haircut of "At Least 50%" Coming or IMF will Not Proceed

EU Finance Ministers Decide to Force Banks to Take Bigger Greek Bond Losses, Recapitalize by $140 Billion; Amount Insufficient, Few Other Details

"Resurrection of Dead" Stories by The Telegraph (US of E? Getting hilarious)

EU is reporting "Progress" but None of it is Meaningful







Interesting Links



If Demand is High, Why Has the Price Dropped? (Dr Copper)

The Coming Derivatives Crisis That Could Destroy The Entire Global Financial System (23x World GDP)

Occupy Wall Street: Washington Still Doesn't Get It (Matt Taibbi)

Greece handed €8bn aid package lifeline but euro concerns remain (BIG concerns!!)

Analysis: Greek PM clings to power, tries to dodge snap polls (G Pap's clock is ticking down)

German Chancellor Angela Merkel denies there is an EU deadlock (not a comedy post)

The single currency is close to collapse (tick tock...)



Stockmarket Techs - 20th October